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VIX1D jumps to 23.2 as the vote count begins and dealer short gamma shrinks to −⁠$42.7B

Daily Market ReviewBy QuantDaddyTuesday, November 3, 20268 min read

SPX rose 0.36% to 7,569 on a chip rebound and net GEX improved from −⁠$62.6B to −⁠$42.7B, but the close is still 94 points under the 7,663 flip. VIX1D now sits above every other point on the VIX curve, and Wednesday's expiry prices 27.6% ATM vol. Here are the levels.

Scoreboard

Dealer gamma by expiry window. All = every listed expiry; Weekly = contracts expiring within 7 calendar days; Monthly = within 30 days. Net GEX in $ per 1% move.

1. The tape: chips bounce while the votes are counted

Election Day was a quiet, split session. Chip stocks bounced after Monday's slide, which had left the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index about 22% below its early-October high; the index gained about 2.6%. AMD rose 3.7% into its report, and Intel added 1.5%. The other side of the AI trade was weaker: Apple fell after a soft margin outlook and a miss in Greater China, and Palantir declined even though it beat estimates and raised guidance, as new bookings slowed. Shopify dropped sharply after missing on revenue and merchandise volume, and Gartner slid. Pfizer rose after lifting its full-year guidance.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.36% at 7,569 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372. The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.68% and the Russell 2000 0.23% to 2,812, while the Dow lost 0.38% to about 51,787 as consumer and financial names weighed. Breadth was narrow, with slightly more S&P 500 stocks down than up.

September JOLTS showed 7.5 million openings, up from a revised 7.2 million and above the roughly 7.1 million expected. The 10-year yield rose about 6 basis points to near 4.95%. Brent slipped about 1% to near $103 after Monday's drop, and gold fell about 1%. After the close, AMD reported revenue of $13.38 billion against about $13.06 billion expected and guided fourth-quarter sales to about $17 billion, well above consensus; the stock traded more than 7% higher after hours. Prediction markets gave Democrats about a 76% chance of taking both chambers, with some races unlikely to be called overnight.

Why it matters for vol: the event premium moved forward by a day. Tuesday's expiry, which held Election Day itself, priced about a 98-point move and SPX travelled 28. The premium now sits in Wednesday's expiry, which will absorb the results, AMD, the Treasury refunding and ISM services in one session.

2. Dealer gamma: less short, still under the line

Net GEX across all expiries rose from −⁠$62.6B to −⁠$42.7B per 1% move, largely because Election Day's expiry rolled off and SPX moved up. The flip is essentially unchanged at 7,663 (7,664 on Monday), and SPX closed 94 points (1.2%) under it, compared with 123 points under on Monday. Dealers are still short gamma in every window.

Every bucket from 7,250 to the flip is negative. The largest are 7,500 (−⁠$7.8B), 7,600 (−⁠$5.5B), 7,400 (−⁠$5.4B), 7,300 (−⁠$5.0B) and 7,520 (−⁠$3.6B). The first positive bucket above spot is 7,690, but meaningful call gamma only starts at 7,800 (+$3.4B), followed by 8,000 (+$3.1B) and 7,900 (+$2.5B).

The modeled profile crosses zero near 7,661, in line with the site's 7,663 flip, and reads about −⁠$47B at the close. It keeps falling to a low near −⁠$110B around 7,190, so modeled support below spot stays thin.

This week's three expiries carry a large share. Without Nov 4–6, modeled gamma at spot improves to about −⁠$29B, with the flip near 7,650.

The book beyond the monthly is close to flat. Without everything through the Nov 20 monthly, gamma at spot is about −⁠$3.6B (−⁠$8.3B on Monday), with a flip near 7,587, only 18 points over the close. A small move up would turn that longer-dated book positive.

Weekly vs monthly: half of it expires within a week

The close is under the flip in all three windows (numbers in the dealer-gamma table under the scoreboard). The weekly window carries about half of the total, and expiries beyond 30 days have turned slightly long.

SPX weekly: the next 7 days hold −⁠$21.1B, from −⁠$34.3B, about 49% of the total. The window has five expiries, Nov 4 to Nov 10, covering the election results, the jobs report and October CPI. Its flip is 7,687, 118 points over the close. The put wall moved up to 7,550 (7,520 on Monday), just 19 points under the close, and the call wall stays at 7,650. The largest weekly bucket is 7,520 (−⁠$2.6B); the biggest positive one, 7,800, is only +$0.6B.

SPX monthly: the 30-day window is −⁠$45.5B (−⁠$62.5B on Monday), with the flip at 7,703, the call wall at 7,700 and the put wall at 7,500, where the window's largest bucket sits (−⁠$5.8B). Expiries 8–30 days out add about −⁠$24.4B, while expiries beyond 30 days now net about +$2.8B (roughly flat on Monday), a small offset to the near-term short gamma.

NDX rose 0.68% to 28,180 and total gamma improved to −⁠$1.16B from −⁠$1.78B. It closed 562 points under its 28,742 flip. Weekly is −⁠$0.43B (flip 28,601, call wall 28,700, put wall moved up to 28,000 from 27,500) and monthly −⁠$0.90B (flip 28,732, call wall 29,675, put wall 27,500). The monthly book's largest buckets are still 29,700 (+$0.58B) and 27,500 (−⁠$0.36B), far from spot on both sides.

RUT gained 0.23% to 2,812 with gamma of −⁠$0.54B (−⁠$0.56B on Monday). It closed 28 points under its 2,840 flip, between the 2,800 put wall and the 2,850 call wall.

3. The VIX complex: the one-day point jumps to the top

The front of the index curve flipped. VIX1D jumped 5.32 to 23.22 as its window moved onto Wednesday's session, and it is now above VIX9D (21.96, −0.50) and VIX (20.83, −0.32). Everything from 30 days out eased by about a third of a point: VIX3M 21.27, VIX6M 22.31, VIX1Y 22.85. The market is paying the most for the next day, then the next nine; the three-month and longer tenors barely moved.

Futures fell more than spot at the front. November settled at 19.90 (−0.48) and December at 19.55 (−0.30), so M1→M2 stays negative at −1.77% (−2.61% on Monday). January fell 0.20 to 20.18, and the back months were roughly unchanged. Spot VIX is now 0.93 point above the November contract, which settles on Nov 18, wider than 0.77 on Monday: futures still price VIX lower by mid-November. VVIX eased 3.1 to 107.4.

VIX/VIX3M held at 0.979, higher than 92% of the past year's sessions and close to the 1.0 line where the near-term index curve inverts.

4. Implied vs realized: a 9.5-point cushion

SPX 21-day realized vol eased to 11.3 from 11.4. With VIX at 20.8, the gap is 9.5 points (9.7 on Monday), wider than 89% of the past year. Options keep pricing close to twice the volatility SPX has delivered over the past month; the next four sessions decide whether that premium gets realized.

5. SPX surface: the premium moves to Wednesday

Thirty-day ATM IV was little changed at 16.2% (16.3% on Monday), and 30-day skew (90% vs 110%) eased to 13.3 points from 13.9. The 90-day minus 30-day slope is −0.5 points, still inverted. The 7-day smile (Nov 10) has 88% puts above 40% vol and bottoms near 14% around 104%, with a call wing that curls up; the 30-day curve (Dec 3) runs from about 29% at 88% to a flat call side near 12.5%.

ATM IV is 27.6% for Wednesday Nov 4, the first expiry after the vote and AMD and the highest on the curve, about a 1.7% (132-point) move. It is 24.2% for Nov 5 and 23.2% for Nov 6, jobs day, which together price about a 2.5% (roughly 190-point) move through Friday. After that the curve drops: 18.6% for Nov 9, 19.0% for Nov 10 (CPI), and 17.5% for the Nov 20 monthly.

6. Cross-asset Vol Sentiment: four US markets still in the stressed zone

The cross-asset Vol Sentiment score places volatility in 14 equity, currency, rates, credit and commodity markets within its own one-year range (0 = stress, 100 = calm). On the one-year window it slipped to 42.1 from 43.1 on Monday, well below 55.1 a week ago and 57.8 a month ago, and higher than only 21% of the past year's sessions. The shorter windows are weaker: 28.6 on one month and 23.1 on three months.

Four markets sit in the stressed zone (under 20), all of them in the US: rates (10.8), equities (14.2), investment grade (14.6) and high yield (15.8). Japan is on the line at 20.0 and Europe at 25.8. GBP/USD (87.9) is the only market in the calm zone, with USD/JPY at 80.0 and copper at 75.8. Next to the SPX picture, the strain stays concentrated in US equities, rates and credit, while currencies remain calm; the composite kept drifting lower even on an up day for stocks. It is context, not a trading signal.

Calendar: the week ahead

Economic data & Fed

Earnings

Volatility dates (expirations, events)

What I'm watching

• 7,663–7,703. The all-expiry flip (7,663), the weekly flip (7,687) and the monthly flip (7,703), with the 7,650 weekly call wall and the 7,700 monthly call wall inside the band. SPX is 94 points under the bottom of it; until it gets back above, dealers are short gamma in every window.
• 7,550, then 7,500 and 7,400. The weekly put wall sits only 19 points under the close, then the monthly put wall and largest negative strike at 7,500 (−⁠$7.8B), then 7,400 (−⁠$5.4B). Below there the modeled profile keeps falling toward about −⁠$110B near 7,190.
• Wednesday's 27.6%. The Nov 4 expiry prices about 132 points for the results, AMD's reaction, the refunding and ISM services. Election Day's expiry priced about 98 points and delivered 28; another undershoot would take the pressure off the front end quickly.
• VIX1D over VIX9D over VIX. VIX1D 23.22, VIX9D 21.96, VIX 20.83, with spot VIX 0.93 over the November future and VIX/VIX3M at 0.979 (92nd percentile). Watch whether the front end deflates once the results are known, or the premium rolls into Friday's jobs report and next Tuesday's CPI.
• The book beyond the monthly. Without everything through Nov 20, modeled gamma at spot is −⁠$3.6B with a flip at 7,587, 18 points over the close. A close above that would leave the longer-dated book long gamma, the first sign of a cushion rebuilding.

Sources

• Yahoo Finance: Dow slips, S&P and Nasdaq gain as chip stocks rally, focus shifts to midterm elections (Nov 3, 2026)
• TheStreet: Stock Market Today (Nov. 3, 2026)
• Econ Currents: 03 November 2026 market close
• Investing.com: AMD stock jumps after hours as quarterly results, revenue guidance beat estimates
• BLS: Release schedule, November 2026
• Newsquawk: Weekly economic calendar, 2nd–6th November 2026
• StockTitan: Earnings calendar, week of November 2, 2026

Volatility data: ilovevol.app. GEX assumes dealers are long calls and short puts. VIX futures use settlement prices. Implied moves are approximations from expiry ATM IV. Vol Sentiment: ilovevol.app cross-asset score (0 = stress, 100 = calm), one-year window unless noted.

This review is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. See the disclaimer.